03 / FOLLOW THE OBSERVATIONS
Read the price path without inventing the gaps
Odds Trend shows the price observations FootyDesk actually retained. A connected line helps compare them over time; it does not establish every price that traded between those observations.
6 minute readUpdated October 23, 2026Research education · no outcome recommended
01
Select one line and a pre-kickoff window
Open Odds Trend from a compatible match selection, then choose 1X2, Over/Under or Asian Handicap and the exact outcome/line. Select a bookmaker or compare the stored books. The time-window filter is measured before kickoff; it is separate from the five-, ten- or twenty-match history used for statistical research.
Only valid records timestamped at or before kickoff belong to the pre-match view. Post-kickoff, malformed and otherwise ineligible records are excluded. Missing 3.5-goal history must not be replaced by a 2.5-goal chart. A book with no adequate history for that line should not acquire a manufactured opening price.
02
Read distance and connected observations correctly
The horizontal axis represents elapsed time, so a four-hour gap should occupy more space than a ten-minute gap. The vertical axis represents the actual selected scale: decimal odds or implied probability. Equal vertical price differences should have equal spacing. Compare values against the labeled axis instead of interpreting the chart’s visual angle alone.
Lines connect retained quotes. Movement between observations is unknown. The price axis uses equal numeric intervals and may zoom into the displayed range; it is not necessarily a zero-based chart. A connected segment does not assert an unobserved intraday high, low, continuous feed or intermediate executable price.
03
Interpret shortening and drifting
From the bettor’s decimal-odds perspective, falling odds are “shortened,” rising odds are “drifted,” and equal odds are “unchanged.” Green indicates shortening, red drifting and gray flat. Arrows and words repeat the meaning so color is not the only cue.
Absolute change is latest minus earliest stored. Percentage change divides that difference by the earliest stored price. Implied probability is 1 / decimal odds; its change is a probability-point difference, not the same quantity as the percentage change in odds. Margin and the other outcomes still matter.
Illustrative retained observations · not live bookmaker data
- Earliest stored price
- 2.50
- Latest pre-match price
- 2.25
- Absolute odds change
- −0.25
- Percentage odds change
- −0.25 / 2.50 = −10%
- Direction
- Shortened
- Raw implied probability
- 40.00% → 44.44% (+4.44 percentage points)
This describes the retained price movement. It does not establish that the team’s true chance rose by 4.44 points.
04
Keep books separate in the heatmap
Each row belongs to one stored bookmaker. Compare that row’s observations against its own earliest quote. First and latest timestamps stay attached to the same book. Do not take one bookmaker’s first price and another’s latest price to construct a supposed opening-to-closing history.
Heatmap columns group actual observations and may span unequal durations. Missing cells indicate absent observations in that window; they are not zero movement and should not be filled by interpolation or an earlier quote. Hover, tap or focus a cell for its exact quote and timestamp.
Consensus is labeled separately. Its construction and contributing books matter; changes in which books are available can affect a consensus path. The best latest retained price is another separate comparison and should retain its bookmaker identity.
05
Treat sparse history as a data limit
A single snapshot cannot show a trend. Without valid timestamps, the pre-match path cannot be established. A sparse table can be more honest and more useful than a decorative chart. Inspect the observation-quality panel for snapshot counts, first/last times, missing-opening information and excluded records.
New collection can improve future history, but cannot recover a release price that was never stored. An unavailable-history state is not a signal that prices never moved. If a refresh fails, retained valid records keep their original clocks; a targeted retry should not turn an old response into a new observation.
Use movement as context beside the evidence and current exact price. A shortening favorite can still be poorly priced. A drift can reflect new information, liquidity, margin changes or noise. The chart alone does not identify the cause or establish betting value.
Before you move on
- Market, line, period and bookmaker identity stay exact.
- Earliest stored is not described as guaranteed opening.
- Time spacing and numeric axes are read before the slope.
- Missing heatmap observations remain missing.
- Movement is checked against evidence and the latest eligible price.